Whilst there were calls for the government to use the VAT system to stimulate growth and address the cost-of-living crisis such as a temporary targeted VAT rate cut on domestic fuel, and raising the VAT registration threshold, there were no significant announcements outside alcohol duty and VAT free shopping for non-UK visitors.
The freezing of Alcohol duties will be welcome news to the hospitality sector, as will reform to improve the alcohol duty system to make it simpler, more economically rational and less administratively burdensome on businesses and HMRC. The devil will however be in the detail.
The introduction of a ‘new’ VAT-free shopping scheme for non-UK visitors to Great Britain is a slightly unexpected and unusual announcement. The current government actually withdrew the previous scheme (VAT Retail Export Scheme) in Great Britain on 31 December 2020, as part of Brexit changes, although it was at the time begrudgingly required to retain the scheme in Northern Ireland due to the requirements of the Northern Ireland protocol.
This announcement is effectively a policy U-turn.
The government’s costings for the new measure in their Growth Plan document are £1.265BN (24-25), 1.955BN (25-26) and £2,060BN (26-27) respectively. The figures are the government’s own projections, which haven’t been independently verified by the OBR. In December 2020, the government published a Tax information and impact notes (TIIN) including the impact of removal of the VAT RES from 1 January 2021. This estimated the impact of the removal of the VAT RES at £440m (25-25) and £460m (25-26) some ¾ times lower than the government’s current figures.
The inference from the vastly different figures, if correct, is either:
Alternatively, the new government figures may not be accurate and overestimate the ‘tax cut’! If these are wrong, what else is wrong!